Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 26.373719 29.202378 32.425523 36.421893 41.320261 47.236007 55.098740
2025-02-16 22.522210 26.167612 30.697063 36.927430 45.617216 57.932729 78.143547
2025-02-23 19.694583 23.632478 28.827594 36.545459 48.494102 68.059832 108.205271
2025-03-02 17.844604 21.955774 27.644504 36.659722 51.993710 81.003440 158.697303
2025-03-09 16.343292 20.487536 26.433775 36.352702 54.618125 94.150686 237.729818
2025-03-16 15.132838 19.250977 25.333531 35.919417 56.811036 108.242834 379.094753
2025-03-23 14.153930 18.226825 24.391063 35.520501 58.909772 124.350293 695.985786
2025-03-30 13.366853 17.399805 23.637958 35.286307 61.283475 144.474511 1872.155918
2025-04-06 12.575550 16.491867 22.642081 34.404082 61.844789 159.655366 10862.495856
2025-04-13 12.334911 16.404639 22.983069 36.166331 69.850839 224.182414 NaN
2025-04-20 11.785032 15.782443 22.338019 35.794610 71.905586 265.427862 NaN
2025-04-27 11.381795 15.363109 22.001266 36.014533 75.923786 341.714714 NaN
2025-05-04 11.027631 15.004771 21.749359 36.410610 80.968899 475.315326 NaN
2025-05-11 10.667089 14.611543 21.396780 36.521751 85.245327 677.018543 NaN
2025-05-18 10.259221 14.114172 20.807702 35.979768 86.855031 896.158418 NaN
2025-05-25 9.953622 13.770429 20.478079 36.018168 91.031185 1500.298021 NaN
2025-06-01 9.632016 13.380989 20.029097 35.688765 93.536049 2632.775591 NaN
2025-06-08 9.324111 12.998872 19.565503 35.255233 95.436768 5688.696266 NaN
2025-06-15 9.042968 12.649013 19.140000 34.862836 97.453910 30272.189321 NaN
2025-06-22 8.797749 12.349696 18.793248 34.633380 100.343249 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 8.507652 11.959559 18.241374 33.777121 99.338539 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 8.475476 12.019396 18.595305 35.484396 115.255894 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 8.259163 11.742392 18.242352 35.124114 117.715420 NaN NaN